Here are our box office predictions for The Naked Gun.

Opening Weekend (Domestic): $28.5 Million

Opening Weekend (Global): $71 Million

Total Box Office (Domestic): $100 Million

Total Box Office (Global): $250 Million

 

Naked Gun Box Office: A deep dive into our forecast šŸ•µļøā€ā™‚ļø

 

Frank Drebin is back, and this time he looks a lot like Liam Neeson. The remake of the classic 1988 slapstick comedy The Naked Gun opens today, August 1st, 2025, in 3,344 theaters across the US. The big question for movie stock traders is whether this blend of a beloved, but old, IP with an action star taking a comedic turn can deliver the goods at the box office.

We’ve run the numbers, analyzed the market, and built a model to project its performance. Let’s break it down.

 

The Comps: Charting a Course with Comedy Remakes šŸ“ˆ

 

To build a solid prediction, we first need to look at comparable films (“comps”). We’re focusing on modern comedy remakes and star-driven action-comedies.

  • 21 Jump Street (2012): The gold standard for R-rated comedy remakes. It opened to $36.3M and legged it out to a $138.4M domestic total, proving a dormant IP could be a smash hit.
  • The Lost City (2022): A recent PG-13 action-comedy with big star power (Sandra Bullock, Channing Tatum). It opened to $30.5M and finished with a solid $105.3M domestic run.
  • Free Guy (2021): Another PG-13 action-comedy that outperformed expectations in a tricky market, opening to $28.4M and finishing with an impressive $121.6M domestic.
  • Baywatch (2017): A cautionary tale. Despite huge stars, this R-rated remake fumbled its opening ($18.5M) and barely recovered, finishing with just $58.1M domestically.

These comps show a target opening weekend in the $28M – $35M range for a successful launch. They also highlight the importance of tone and audience reception.

 

Market Factors & IP Strength šŸ§

 

It’s not just about the movie; it’s about the market it’s entering.

  • Release Date: Early August is a decent spot. The summer blockbuster rush has peaked, leaving room for a new comedy to find its audience without being crushed by a superhero tentpole.
  • Star Power: Liam Neeson is a globally recognized star. While he’s known for action, his turn in a broad comedy is the film’s biggest marketing hook and its biggest risk. Will audiences buy “Taken” star Liam Neeson as the bumbling Frank Drebin? His international appeal is a huge asset.
  • IP Recognition: The Naked Gun is iconic… to Gen X and older Millennials. The challenge for Paramount Pictures is convincing younger audiences who have never heard of Leslie Nielsen or the Zucker-Abrahams-Zucker style of rapid-fire, visual-gag comedy to show up. A PG-13 rating helps broaden its potential audience.
  • The Director: Akiva Schaffer of The Lonely Island is at the helm. This signals a sharp, joke-dense film, but his previous directorial efforts (Hot Rod, Popstar) were critical darlings, not box office titans.

 

Building the Model: From PTA to Global Gross šŸ¤“

 

Now for the fun part. Let’s show our work on how we got to our final numbers.

 

Step 1: Domestic Opening Weekend

 

We project a Per-Theater Average (PTA) is the key first step. Given the comps and the film’s specific variables, we’re forecasting a PTA of approximately $8,500.

We’re rounding this to a final projection of $28.5 million. This would be a very solid start, right in line with Free Guy and The Lost City.

 

Step 2: Total Domestic Gross

 

Next, we apply a multiplier to the opening weekend figure to forecast the film’s total domestic run. Comedies that land well with audiences can have great legs. We are projecting a 3.5x multiplier, assuming decent reviews and positive word-of-mouth.

This puts the film just shy of the coveted nine-figure mark. We’ll round this up to $100 million domestic, a huge psychological win and a clear success.

 

Step 3: Total Global Gross

 

Finally, we project the global take. Slapstick comedy often translates well overseas, and Liam Neeson is a major international draw. We are forecasting a 40% domestic / 60% international split, similar to other action-heavy comedies.

This gives us a final worldwide prediction of $250 million. From this, we can also estimate the global opening weekend.

 

Final Verdict & Stock Recommendation āœ…

 

Our analysis points to a successful launch for The Naked Gun. The combination of a known IP, a bankable star trying something new, and a favorable release date should lead to strong results both at home and abroad. While it may not reach the comedic heights of 21 Jump Street, it’s poised to be a profitable studio comedy.