Here are our box office predictions for The Bad Guys 2.

Opening Weekend (Domestic): $32.5 Million

Opening Weekend (Global): $83 Million

Total Box Office (Domestic): $127 Million

Total Box Office (Global): $325 Million

 

The Bad Guys 2: A deep dive into our forecast đŸș

 

The Wolf Pack is back! DreamWorks Animation’s much-anticipated sequel, The Bad Guys 2, hits theaters today, August 1st, 2025. The 2022 original was a breakout hit, blending slick heist-caper action with a unique, stylized animation that won over critics and audiences alike. Now, the question for traders on the Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX) is whether the sequel can build on that success.

With the current stock trading at H$70.77 (implying a final domestic gross of $70.77 million), we’ve crunched the numbers to see if this stock is a steal or a swindle.

 

The Comps: The Power of a Beloved Sequel 🚀

 

The most important “comp” is, of course, the original film. But we can also learn a lot from how other successful animated sequels have performed.

  • The Bad Guys (2022): The original opened to a solid $23.95M and showcased incredible legs, multiplying its opening over four times to a $97.4M domestic finish. It earned a stellar “A” CinemaScore, confirming its broad audience appeal.
  • Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (2022): This film is the poster child for a sequel surpassing all expectations. It demonstrated that a high-quality, well-marketed animated sequel can have phenomenal staying power, earning a domestic total ($186M) over 15 times its initial weekend.
  • Sing 2 (2021): Another DreamWorks/Illumination sequel that showed impressive legs. It built on the goodwill of the original and legged out to a massive $162.8M domestic total.
  • Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (2023): While a superhero film, its performance as an animated sequel is key. It saw its opening weekend explode from the original’s $35.4M to a stunning $120.7M, proving that a beloved first film can create a massive, built-in audience for its follow-up.

These comps show a clear pattern: audiences show up in greater numbers for sequels to animated films they love.

 

Market Factors & Inherent Strengths 💎

 

  • Release Date: August 1st is the perfect hunting ground for this crew. It’s positioned as the must-see family film for the remainder of the summer season, with minimal direct competition.
  • Built-In Goodwill: The first film was a word-of-mouth hit. Families, kids, and animation fans who discovered it on streaming or late in its theatrical run are now a locked-in opening weekend audience for the sequel.
  • The “Cool” Factor: The Bad Guys stands out. Its snappy, “Ocean’s Eleven”-for-kids vibe and its graphic, anime-influenced visual style are major assets that differentiate it from more traditional CGI animation. We expect the marketing to lean heavily into this.

 

Building the Model: Calculating the Heist đŸ€“

 

Here’s how we forecast this box office score, step-by-step.

 

Step 1: Domestic Opening Weekend

 

A sequel to a film as well-received as The Bad Guys (A CinemaScore!) almost always opens higher than the original. We are projecting a 35% increase over the first film’s $24M debut.

We’ll round that to a confident projection of $32.5 million for the domestic opening.

 

Step 2: Total Domestic Gross

 

Animated films that score well with audiences have famously long legs at the box office. The original had a superb 4.07x multiplier. While sequels can sometimes be more front-loaded, we expect another stellar run. We are projecting a powerful 3.9x multiplier.

This lands our final domestic gross projection at $127 million.

 

Step 3: Total Global Gross

 

The first film had a roughly 39% domestic / 61% international box office split. We expect the sequel to perform similarly, with the brand’s international appeal growing.

Our model projects a massive $325 million global haul. Based on this split, we can also estimate the global opening weekend to be around $83 million.

 

Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX) Analysis & Recommendation đŸ’”

 

  • Current HSX Price: H$70.77
  • Implied Domestic Gross: $70.77 Million
  • Our Projected Domestic Gross: $127 Million

Our analysis indicates that the current HSX trading price dramatically undervalues the box office potential of The Bad Guys 2. The H$70.77 price suggests the film will earn significantly less than its predecessor ($97.4M), a scenario that runs contrary to all available data for well-liked animated sequels. Our projection of $127M is nearly 80% higher than the market’s current expectation.