Based on the detailed fighter profiles and performance patterns, here’s an analysis of the UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber card, focusing on identifying underdogs with a strong potential to win and favorites who might dominate more than their odds suggest.

Factors Considered:

  • Stylistic Matchups: How fighters’ primary skills (striking, grappling, wrestling) align or clash.
  • Recent Form & Momentum: Current win/loss streaks and recent performance quality.
  • Key Statistics: Striking volume and accuracy, takedown offense and defense, finishing rates.
  • Experience: Overall career and UFC experience, particularly against similar styles.
  • Physical Attributes: Height, reach, and their potential impact.
  • Venue: The UFC Apex in Las Vegas, known for its smaller octagon, can favor pressure fighters and grapplers.  
  • Specific Circumstances:
    • Weight Misses: Maycee Barber and Allan Nascimento both missed weight, which can impact stamina and durability.  
    • Weight Class Change: The Ketlen Vieira vs. Macy Chiasson bout was changed to featherweight at Vieira’s request, potentially indicating weight management issues for Vieira or a comfort advantage for Chiasson who has fought at featherweight before.  
    • Short Notice: Michael Aswell is stepping in on just three days’ notice for his UFC debut.  
    • Layoffs: Jordan Leavitt returns after nearly two years, and Allan Nascimento after 868 days, which could lead to ring rust.  
    • Pressure: The Rayanne dos Santos vs. Alice Ardelean fight is critical for both, as each is 0-2 in the UFC, and the loser is likely to be cut.  

Top 3 Underdogs Who Could Win:

  1. Jafel Filho (+130) vs. Allan Nascimento (-155)  

    • Rationale: This flyweight bout presents a significant opportunity for Filho. Nascimento is returning from an 868-day layoff and missed weight by 1.5 pounds, forfeiting 20% of his purse. These factors can severely impact cardio and performance. Filho, an aggressive submission specialist from Nova Uniao, is on a two-fight streak with impressive first-round submissions. Nascimento’s takedown defense is a concerning 16% , a glaring weakness against a grappler like Filho who actively seeks takedowns and submissions. Filho has expressed confidence in his BJJ and is aiming for another bonus-winning, quick finish. While Nascimento showed a more aggressive and effective style in his last win , the combined layoff, weight miss, and stylistic vulnerability make Filho a very live underdog.  

  2. Ludovit Klein (+140) vs. Mateusz Gamrot (-166)  

    • Rationale: Klein is on an impressive seven-fight unbeaten streak (6 wins, 1 draw) since moving to lightweight, showcasing maintained power and an improved gas tank. Critically, his takedown defense at lightweight is an outstanding 95.2%, the highest all-time among UFC lightweights. This directly counters Gamrot’s primary weapon: relentless wrestling (averaging 5.25 takedowns per 15 minutes). If Klein can neutralize Gamrot’s takedowns, the fight will likely play out on the feet, where Klein’s “Mr. Highlight” striking, accuracy (54% at LW), and power could give him a distinct advantage. Gamrot has recently shown more willingness to strike , which could play into Klein’s strengths. While Gamrot has more experience against top-10 opponents , Klein is taking a deserved step up and has confidently predicted he will be the first to finish Gamrot. The smaller Apex cage favors Gamrot’s pressure , but Klein’s elite TDD makes this a compelling upset pick.  

  3. Alice Ardelean (+215) vs. Rayanne dos Santos (-265)  

    • Rationale: Both fighters are 0-2 in the UFC, making this a high-pressure “must-win” situation. Ardelean, primarily a striker, has demonstrated a perfect 100% takedown defense in her two UFC outings. This is a crucial statistic against dos Santos, a BJJ specialist with 8 submission wins. Dos Santos’s two UFC losses were close split decisions, one of which was controversially scored against her by all media outlets , which might make her hesitant to leave the fight in the judges’ hands again. Ardelean has recently changed training camps to Fusion X-Cel and has focused on her mental preparedness, which could lead to a more composed performance. Additionally, dos Santos had a broken arm that previously postponed this bout, which could be a lingering factor. If Ardelean can maintain her strong takedown defense and implement her striking, she has a clear path to victory.  

Top 3 Favorites Poised for Dominance:

  1. Zachary Reese (-238) vs. Dusko Todorovic (+195)  

    • Rationale: This middleweight fight has a high probability of a decisive finish favoring Reese. Todorovic is on a concerning skid, having lost five of his last seven UFC fights, including his last two by first-round stoppage. His striking defense (46%) and takedown defense (45%) are significant vulnerabilities. Reese is an explosive and unorthodox striker known for finishing fights early (7 of his 8 pro wins prior to his last were in the first round). Reese also possesses height (6’3″ vs. 6’1″) and reach (77″ vs. 74″) advantages. Furthermore, Reese has recently been training at Xtreme Couture, where he has access to insights from Todorovic’s former opponents. Given Todorovic’s questionable durability and Reese’s finishing prowess, an early, dominant win for Reese is highly likely.  

  2. Billy Goff (-395) vs. Ramiz Brahimaj (+310)  

    • Rationale: This is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup where the stylistic dynamics heavily favor Goff. Goff is an exceptionally aggressive, high-volume striker, landing an average of 8.56 significant strikes per minute, and has shown 100% takedown defense in his UFC career thus far (though a small sample size). Brahimaj is a submission specialist who relies on getting the fight to the mat, but his striking output is low (2.26 SLpM), and his striking defense (43%) and takedown defense (44%) are notable weaknesses. If Goff can keep the fight standing, his relentless pressure and striking power are likely to overwhelm Brahimaj, who has struggled with durability against proficient strikers. Goff is also reported to be in career-best shape.  

  3. Bolaji Oki (-375) vs. Michael Aswell (+300)  

    • Rationale: The circumstances surrounding this fight heavily favor Oki. Aswell is making his UFC debut on a mere three days’ notice, replacing MarQuel Mederos. This severely limits Aswell’s preparation, weight cut, and ability to implement a specific game plan. Oki, an aggressive striker with 5 KOs in 9 wins, has UFC experience (1-1) and holds a 2-inch height and 4-inch reach advantage. While Oki is coming off a submission loss that exposed grappling concerns , Aswell’s own DWCS performance showed a high strike absorption rate and a 57% takedown defense , suggesting Oki might not even need to test his grappling. Oki’s power and the extreme short notice for Aswell point towards a dominant performance from the favorite.